Neighborhood winners, losers, and market timing
Which SF neighborhoods are most timing-resistant?
No neighborhood looks immune to a bad purchase cycle. The right neighborhood still changed a peak-era buyer's odds by roughly threefold.
Our citywide analysis found that purchase timing produced the clearest assessment-gap pattern. That raised a second question: if you bought near the 2021–2022 market peak, how much did choosing the right neighborhood matter?
Quite a lot. Among single-family homes bought in 2021–2022, the strongest neighborhood quartile was 3.1 times as likely as the weakest quartile to have an assessment below our modeled market range in 2025. Location changed the odds. It did not erase the cycle.
Three findings
- No neighborhood was immune. Even the strongest recent single-family result still left a meaningful share above the modeled range.
- Castro/Upper Market was the most consistently timing-resistant. It beat its year-and-property-type benchmark in all eight purchase periods.
- Bayview Hunters Point showed the clearest boom-and-bust pattern. Its combined above-range rate rose from 2.9% for 2013–2014 transfers to 62.8% for 2021–2022.
Timing sets the baseline
Across San Francisco, peak-era buyers were far more likely to have an assessment above the modeled market range. Condos entered that pattern earlier. Single-family homes caught up around 2018 and peaked among 2021–2022 buyers.
Above-range assessment signal by last transfer year
Peak-era buyers show the clearest assessment-gap signal.
This citywide curve is the baseline for judging neighborhoods. Comparing a 2011 buyer in one neighborhood with a 2021 buyer in another would mostly measure timing. Our neighborhood results compare each place with the citywide rate expected for the same transfer years and property-type mix.
For peak-era buyers, neighborhood changed the odds
The explorer below answers the practical question directly. Select the property type and purchase period. The strongest list shows neighborhoods where more homes ended up “green,” meaning their 2025 assessment sat below the modeled market range. The comparison accounts for the cohort's year and property-type mix.
How much did neighborhood matter?
Choose a property type and purchase period. “Green” means the 2025 assessment is below the modeled market range.
Citywide: 11.4% green · 29 neighborhoods qualify · 11,736 homes
More likely to end up green
Less likely to end up green
For 2021–2022 single-family buyers, Marina, Noe Valley, Inner Sunset, and Inner Richmond were among the strongest results. Portola and Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside were among the weakest. This describes assessment position today. It is not a direct measure of resale appreciation.
No neighborhood was truly immune
Even the strongest neighborhoods showed cycle exposure. Among places with observations in all four peak-era periods from 2015 through 2022, the lowest worst-period above-range rate was 34.2% when condos and single-family homes were combined.
Single-family homes offer the strongest exception. Noe Valley's above-range rate was 14.2% for 2015–2016 purchases, 14.2% for 2017–2018, 15.1% for 2019–2020, and 23.6% for 2021–2022. That was the best sustained absolute result in the peak-era single-family comparison. It still means nearly one in four recent Noe Valley houses landed above the modeled range.
“Timing-resistant” is the useful label. “Immune” overstates what any neighborhood delivered.
Castro was the most consistently resilient
Castro/Upper Market beat the citywide benchmark for its exact year and property-type mix in every two-year period from 2009–2010 through 2023–2024. Its parcel-weighted advantage was 6.0 percentage points across 1,999 homes.
Potrero Hill also beat expectation in all six periods that passed the sample rules. West of Twin Peaks was the steadiest large neighborhood, finishing better than expected in seven of eight periods with a full adjusted range of only 3.4 points.
Property type matters. Castro/Upper Market condos beat the condo benchmark in every period. Noe Valley single-family homes delivered the strongest recent downside protection.
Bayview showed the clearest boom-and-bust pattern
Bayview Hunters Point moved from better than expected for 2011–2014 transfers to worse than expected in every eligible period from 2015 onward. Its adjusted above-range difference moved from 6.9 points better than expected in 2013–2014 to 23.3 points worse in 2019–2020. The 2021–2022 cohort remained 18.9 points worse than expected.
In plain language, homes last transferred in Bayview during the later cycle were much more likely to have an assessment that current modeled market evidence did not support. The signal was strongest among condos, where more than 80% of eligible 2017–2022 cohorts were above range.
Other cohort-sensitive patterns
- Pacific Heights: the combined 2015–2016 cohort was 15.8 points worse than expected, driven largely by condos. Later cohorts were close to neutral or favorable.
- Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside: the result moved from 6.0 points better than expected in 2013–2014 to 9.6 points worse in 2021–2022.
- Outer Richmond: the pattern moved from 4.4 points better than expected in 2013–2014 to 10.0 points worse in 2023–2024, concentrated in single-family homes.
- Portola single-family homes: the raw above-range rate reached 39.8% for 2017–2018, 53.2% for 2019–2020, and 61.0% for 2021–2022.
What this means for a homeowner
Neighborhood selection mattered, especially around the market peak. A strong neighborhood could substantially improve the odds of ending up with a favorable assessment gap. It could not eliminate timing risk.
If your home appears in a cohort with high above-range exposure, check the property itself. A neighborhood pattern cannot account for condition, remodeling, view, parking, HOA economics, or the exact circumstances of a transfer.
- Use the free property check for an initial screen.
- Review genuinely similar sales near the valuation date.
- Follow the filing guide if the evidence supports a lower value.
Method and sample rules
“Above the modeled market range” is an assessment-gap signal. It is not a confirmed loss, appraisal, appeal result, or direct resale-price index. The analysis compares a 2025 closed-roll assessment snapshot with modeled market ranges. Purchase period is the last recorded transfer year, which is not always an open-market purchase.
Neighborhood-period rows require at least 100 homes in the combined view or 75 in a property-type view, at least 50% moderate or high model support, and no building above 15% of the sample. A stricter sensitivity test preserved Castro/Upper Market as the leading repeatable resilience result.
Read the underlying methodology and data limitations.